[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 30 Jun 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 1 09:31:28 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 June. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disc.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
01 to 03 July. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the
available coronagraph images. During UT day 30 June, the solar
wind speed varied mostly between 325 km/s and 350 km/s, but a
weak blow (around 30/0115 UT)from a CME briefly raised the solar
wind speed up to 393 km/s and also caused brief rises in the
solar wind particle density to 10 ppcc and the total IMF (Bt)
to 6 nT and. The effect of the CME turned the north-south IMF
component (Bz) southwards up to -5 nT. During most parts of the
UT day 30 June, Bt stayed between 2 and 4 nT, Bz in the range
+3/-3 nT and the solar wind particle density between 3 and 9
ppcc. During the next three UT days, 01 to 03 July, the solar
wind speed is expected to vary between its background levels
and slightly enhanced values due to possible minor coronal hole
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 21100001
Cocos Island 2 21100001
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 3 22210101
Learmonth 3 22200001
Alice Springs 2 21100001
Gingin 2 22100000
Canberra 1 11100000
Hobart 1 11100100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 23200101
Mawson 10 13311005
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
02 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
03 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: On UT day 30 June, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian region. Mostly quiet conditions with isolated
unsettled periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet for the next
three UT days, 01 to 03 July, with small possibility of isolated
unsettled periods due to week coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted to moderately enhanced
levels on UT day 30 June. The enhancements were observed mostly
during local night. Sporadic E and spread F were observed at
times over some sites. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly
predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days,
01 to 03 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 1
Jun -12
Jul -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near monthly predicted
to moderately enhanced levels on UT day 30 June. The enhancements
were observed mostly during local night. Sporadic E and spread
F were observed at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in
the Australian region are expected to be mostly near monthly
predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days,
01 to 03 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 29600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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