[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 30 Jan 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 31 10:31:25 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jan             01 Feb             02 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during UT day 30 January. 
There is currently one numbered region 2757 visible on the solar 
disc, now at N03W52. Very low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next three UT days, 31 January to 02 February. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During 
UT day 30 January the solar wind speed remained moderately elevated, 
varying in the range of 400-460 km/s, currently near 440 km/s. 
The total IMF Bt varied between 2-8 nT and the north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) was mostly negative, varying in the range of 
+5/-7 nT. For 31 January to 01 February, the solar wind speed 
is expected to vary between its background and moderately elevated 
levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22223332
      Cocos Island         7   12111332
      Darwin               7   12112332
      Townsville          10   22223332
      Learmonth            9   22123332
      Alice Springs       10   22223332
      Gingin              11   22113343
      Canberra             9   12223332
      Hobart              10   22223332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    16   22325432
      Casey               18   44432333
      Mawson              36   34323475

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3311 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Feb     7    Quiet
02 Feb     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for 30 January were mostly quiet 
to unsettled for the Australian region. The Antarctic region 
observed mostly quiet to active conditions. For the next three 
UT days, 31 January to 02 February, global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels. Unsettled 
periods are more likely for 31 January and 02 February because 
the solar wind speed is expected to be moderately elevated on 
those UT days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 31 January to 02 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jan    -9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jan   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
01 Feb   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
02 Feb   -15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the Australian region on 30 January. Minor 
MUFs depressions were observed in the Southern Australian region 
during local day. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over all Australian 
sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for 
the next three UT days, 31 January to 02 February. Mild MUFs 
depressions are possible for 31 January and 01 February.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 409 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   123000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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