[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 30 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 31 10:31:25 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during UT day 30 January.
There is currently one numbered region 2757 visible on the solar
disc, now at N03W52. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 31 January to 02 February. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During
UT day 30 January the solar wind speed remained moderately elevated,
varying in the range of 400-460 km/s, currently near 440 km/s.
The total IMF Bt varied between 2-8 nT and the north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) was mostly negative, varying in the range of
+5/-7 nT. For 31 January to 01 February, the solar wind speed
is expected to vary between its background and moderately elevated
levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 22223332
Cocos Island 7 12111332
Darwin 7 12112332
Townsville 10 22223332
Learmonth 9 22123332
Alice Springs 10 22223332
Gingin 11 22113343
Canberra 9 12223332
Hobart 10 22223332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
Macquarie Island 16 22325432
Casey 18 44432333
Mawson 36 34323475
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3311 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Feb 7 Quiet
02 Feb 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for 30 January were mostly quiet
to unsettled for the Australian region. The Antarctic region
observed mostly quiet to active conditions. For the next three
UT days, 31 January to 02 February, global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels. Unsettled
periods are more likely for 31 January and 02 February because
the solar wind speed is expected to be moderately elevated on
those UT days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 31 January to 02 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
01 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
02 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on 30 January. Minor
MUFs depressions were observed in the Southern Australian region
during local day. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over all Australian
sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for
the next three UT days, 31 January to 02 February. Mild MUFs
depressions are possible for 31 January and 01 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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