[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 29 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 30 10:31:23 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during UT day 29 January.
There is currently one numbered region 2757 visible on the solar
disc, now at N03W39. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 30 January to 01 February. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During
UT day 29 January up to 0730 UT the solar wind speed was gradually
increasing; it reached 460 km/s and then declined to its background
levels, currently near 400 km/s. The total IMF Bt varied between
0-8 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was in the
range of +6/-8 nT. For 30 January to 01 February, the solar wind
speed is expected to be mostly near its background levels; however,
it can reach 400 km/s due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Cocos Island 2 22100011
Darwin 4 22110112
Townsville 5 22221022
Learmonth 6 32121112
Alice Springs 4 22110122
Gingin 6 32111222
Canberra 4 22220012
Hobart 5 22221112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
Macquarie Island 7 23141011
Casey 19 35522223
Mawson 20 55311333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0100 0013
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 7 Quiet
31 Jan 7 Quiet
01 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 29 January was mostly quiet
for the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed quiet
to minor storm conditions. For the next three UT days, 30 January
to 01 February, global geomagnetic activity is expected to be
mostly at quiet levels with a chance of isolated unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 30 January to 01 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
31 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on 29 January. Mild
MUFs depressions were observed in the equatorial region during
local day. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over all Australian
sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for
the next three UT days, 30 January to 01 February. Mild MUFs
depressions are possible for 30 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 27700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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