[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 January 20 issued 2340 UT on 16 Jan 2020

Fri Jan 17 10:40:47 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jan             18 Jan             19 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               71/6               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 16Jan. There are currently 
no sunspots on the visible solar disc and no Earth directed CMEs 
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind 
speed (Vsw) was 314km/s at 00UT and gradually increased to be 
403km/s at 0949UT. Vsw has since decreased to be 325km/s at the 
time of this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
varied in the range +5nT and -4nT between 00UT-12UT and since 
then declined in magnitude to fluctuate between +/-2nT. The brief 
increase in solar wind speed in the early half of the UT day 
was most likely due to the weak influence of an anticipated high 
speed solar wind stream from a recurrent positive polarity coronal 
hole. A fragmented negative polarity coronal hole located just 
south of the equator is beginning to cross the central meridian 
and may result in a slight increase in solar wind speed from 
late in the UT day 19Jan. Very low levels of solar activity are 
expected for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22221001
      Cocos Island         3   22211000
      Darwin               3   22211001
      Townsville           6   23212111
      Learmonth            4   22221011
      Alice Springs        3   12211001
      Gingin               4   22221101
      Canberra             4   12321000
      Hobart               6   13321101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     3   12220000
      Casey               17   35532111
      Mawson               8   23222123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan : 
      Darwin               5   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0002 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jan     6    Quiet
18 Jan     6    Quiet
19 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels over the Australian 
region for 16Jan with Unsettled to Quiet conditions for Antarctic 
region. Mostly Quiet global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
for the next three days with possible Unsettled conditions for 
19Jan.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were mostly normal for 16Jan 
with observed enhancements for northern hemisphere and depressed 
periods for southern hemisphere stations. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Jan   -21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jan   -15    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jan   -15    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jan   -15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the Australian region on 16Jan. Mild to Moderate 
MUFs depressions observed at Equatorial regions and notable Sporadic-E 
occurrences for some Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ sites. 
Similar levels of ionospheric support is expected for the next 
three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 318 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    32000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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