[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 15 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 16 10:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 15 Jan. There are currently
no sunspots on the visible solar disc and no Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind
speed remained under 350 km/s. The north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) varied in the range +3 nT and -5 nT. Solar wind speed
is expected to remain mostly near its nominal levels for the
next three days, 16-18 Jan. Very low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three days, 16-18 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11121112
Cocos Island 1 01110101
Darwin 2 11111101
Townsville 4 11121112
Learmonth 3 01122102
Alice Springs 2 11111101
Gingin 4 11121212
Canberra 4 11121112
Hobart 4 11221112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 00121001
Casey 11 34322212
Mawson 9 32122233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 1001 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 6 Quiet
17 Jan 6 Quiet
18 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels over the Australian
region for 15 Jan with Quiet to Unsettled conditions for Antarctic
region. Mostly Quiet global geomagnetic conditions are expected
for the next three days, 16-18 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days, 16-18 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on 15 Jan. Mild to Moderate
MUFs depressions observed at Niue Island region. Sporadic-E occurrences
were seen over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support
is expected for the next three days, 16-18 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 29900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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