[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 February 20 issued 2332 UT on 01 Feb 2020

Sun Feb 2 10:32:49 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Feb             03 Feb             04 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 01Feb. There is currently 
one numbered region 2757 visible on the solar disc approaching 
the west limb located at N03W78 and it has remained quiet and 
stable over the last 24 hours. No Earth directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind speed (Vsw) 
ranged between 389km/s and 509km/s and is currently 450km/s at 
the time of this report. The north-south component of the IMF 
(Bz) fluctuated between +/-2nT in the early half of the UT day 
and then increased in magnitude to range between +4nT and -6nT 
for the latter half. No sustained southward excursions observed 
for Bz over the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to decline 
to nominal levels over the next 3 days. Very low levels of solar 
activity are expected for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11112211
      Cocos Island         2   00111211
      Darwin               4   10112212
      Townsville           5   11113211
      Learmonth            5   11222221
      Alice Springs        4   10112212
      Gingin               4   10112222
      Canberra             4   11112211
      Hobart               4   11212211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     5   01123211
      Casey               11   22432223
      Mawson              24   43322346

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2412 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Feb     6    Quiet
03 Feb     6    Quiet
04 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for 01Feb were Quiet for the 
Australian region with Antarctic regions experiencing Active 
to Unsettled conditions. Geomagnetic activity is expected to 
be mostly Quiet for 02Feb-04Feb with Unsettled to Active conditions 
for Antarctic regions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions observed for 01Feb 
with enhancements for both northern and southern hemisphere as 
well as depressed periods for southern hemisphere stations. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with possible disturbed 
ionospheric support for high latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Feb    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -20
Feb      -16
Mar      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
03 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
04 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for 01Feb were at 
either near predicted monthly values or slightly enhanced for 
Northern AUS regions. Minor MUFs depressions observed at some 
equatorial stations during local day. Sporadic-E occurrences 
observed at Northern AUS to Southern AUS/NZ sites. Similar levels 
of ionospheric support are expected for the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 481 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   159000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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