[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 January 20 issued 2348 UT on 31 Jan 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 1 10:48:17 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 31Jan. There is currently
one numbered region 2757 visible on the solar disc located at
N03W65 and it has remained quiet and stable over the last 24
hours. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. Solar wind speed (Vsw) was ~450km/s at 00UT
and gradually increased to reach a maximum of 557km/s at 0933UT
and has since declined to be 445km/s at the time of this report.
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range
+4nT and -6nT during the first half of the UT day and has since
declined in magnitude to fluctuate between +/-2nT. A return to
nominal solar wind speeds is expected over the next 24 hours,
with recent elevated Vsw due to the influence of a high speed
solar wind stream from negative polarity coronal hole that is
no longer visible on the solar disc. Very low levels of solar
activity are expected for the next three days. ACE EPAM data
indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 31/1705UT,
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over
next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 23122001
Cocos Island 2 12121000
Darwin 4 22122001
Townsville 5 23122011
Learmonth 5 23122001
Alice Springs 3 22122000
Gingin 5 23122001
Canberra 4 13222000
Hobart 6 23232001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 13132000
Casey 16 35432212
Mawson 17 45322214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1221 2422
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Feb 7 Quiet
03 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for 31Jan were Quiet to Unsettled
for the Australian region with Antarctic regions experiencing
Active to Unsettled conditions. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be Unsettled to Quiet for 01Feb with possible isolated Active
periods for Antarctic regions. Mostly Quiet conditions expected
for 02Feb-03Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Fair-normal
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions observed for 31Jan
with enhancements for both northern and southern hemisphere as
well as depressed periods for southern hemisphere stations. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with possible disturbed
ionospheric support for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for 31Jan were at
either near predicted monthly values or slightly enhanced for
Equatorial and Northern AUS regions. Minor MUFs depressions observed
at Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day. Sporadic-E occurrences
observed at Northern AUS to Southern AUS/NZ sites. Similar levels
of ionospheric support are expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 87700 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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