[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 17 Aug 2020

Tue Aug 18 09:31:24 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Aug             19 Aug             20 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 August. The 
Sun is spotless. A CME was observed in LASCO images at 17/0125 
UT off the west limb and is considered to be associated with 
AR2770 on the far side. The CME is not considered will be geoeffective. 
Solar wind parameters have been at background levels with speed 
range of 280 to 340 km/s, total IMF 2 to 7 nT and the north-south 
IMF (Bz) range +5 to -4 nT. Very Low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next three days, 18 to 20 August. There 
are no returning regions expected. Solar wind parameters are 
expected to be mostly near background levels until late 19 Aug 
when there is the possibility of impact from the CME associated 
with the B1 flare at 16/1726 UT (region SN03 S30E25).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11111000
      Cocos Island         1   11111000
      Darwin               2   11111001
      Townsville           3   12112001
      Learmonth            3   22121000
      Alice Springs        2   12111001
      Gingin               1   11100000
      Canberra             1   11111000
      Hobart               1   01111000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   22310000
      Mawson               6   12120014

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1210 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Aug     7    Quiet
19 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled. Possible active periods later.
20 Aug    19    Quiet to unsettled. Possible active periods.

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on UT day 17 August. Quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected 18 to 20 Aug. There may be an increase 
in activity late on 19 Aug due to CME effects. If the CME impacts, 
active to minor storm conditions likely.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Fair to Normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 18 to 20 August.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Aug     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -1
Aug      -13
Sep      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 17 August. 
Weak ionosphere at Darwin 19-20 UT. Sporadic E observed at Cocos 
Is. 04-22 UT and Sydney 10-14 UT. Spread F observed during night 
hours at Townsville, Brisbane, Norfolk Is., Perth. MUFs in the 
Australian region are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to mildly enhanced 18 to 20 August.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 315 km/sec  Density:    9.8 p/cc  Temp:    26200 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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