[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 16 Aug 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 17 09:31:28 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Aug             18 Aug             19 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 August with 
a single B2 flare at 16/1732UT from a plage area in the SE quadrant. 
An associated CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery staring 
16/1800UT. An other CME was observed in LASCO imagery at 15/2336UT 
but faint in STEREO imagery, probably associated with the filament 
structure observed lifting off SW quadrant around 15/1428UT.The 
two events will be further analysed for any Earth directed component. 
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
days, 17-19 August with a slight chance of an isolate C class 
flare. On 16 August, the solar wind speed was near its background 
levels, between 270 Km/s and 330 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and 
the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 2-8 nT 
and +/-6 nT, respectively. Solar wind speed is expected to stay 
mostly near its nominal levels for 17-19 August. Slight enhancements 
may be observed due to weak coronal hole influence.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   02210100
      Cocos Island         2   02110100
      Darwin               3   12210101
      Townsville           3   12210101
      Learmonth            2   02210100
      Alice Springs        1   02110000
      Gingin               1   01200000
      Canberra             1   01210000
      Hobart               1   01110001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   12320000
      Mawson               7   43221000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1020 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Aug     5    Quiet
18 Aug     7    Mostly Quiet with a chance of isolated Unsettled 
                periods.
19 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian 
region on UT day 16 August. Mostly Quiet global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected for UT days 17-19 August with a chance of isolated 
Unsettled periods due to minor coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the 
next three UT days, 17-19 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Aug    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -1
Aug      -13
Sep      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced values on UT day 
16 August. Spread F and Sporadic E were observed at times over 
some Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values to for 17-19 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 294 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:    16000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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