[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 August 20 issued 2333 UT on 01 Aug 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 2 09:33:00 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 01 August, with
a weak B-class flare. There are currently two numbered regions
on the visible disc, AR2767 (S19W70) and AR2768 (N23E15). Region
2767 will soon rotate to the far side of the sun. Very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 02-04 August.
A CME first observed in the LASCO C2 imagery at 31/1800 UTC is
possibly a limb side event and therefore is unlikely to impact
the earth. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. During UT day 01 August, the solar wind speed
was near its nominal levels, varying in the range 310-350 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-5 nT, and the north-south IMF
component (Bz) varied mainly between +3/-2 nT. Enhancements in
the solar wind speed are possible today (02 August) due to an
extension of the northern polar coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 0 01000001
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 1 01100001
Townsville 1 11001001
Learmonth 1 01000011
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Gingin 0 00000011
Canberra 0 00001000
Hobart 1 01111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 3 12201011
Mawson 9 02211144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1101 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 12 Unsettled
03 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 01 August, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet with some isolated unsettled periods.
The two-day outlook (UT days 02 and 03 August) is for the geomagnetic
conditions to reach unsettled levels with a chance of isolated
active periods, due to the anticipated coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some degradation is possible in the high latitude regions
on 02-03 August due to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug -10 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly to moderately enhanced values on UT day 01
August. Sporadic E were observed over some sites. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values for the next three UT days, 02-04 August. Some MUF degradations
are possible on UT day 03 August in response to the coronal hole
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 42700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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