[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 31 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 1 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 31 July. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disc, 2767
(S22W59) and 2768 (N23E28). Both regions are magnetically simple
and remained stable over the period. Very low solar activity
is expected for the next three UT days, 01-03 August. No Earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images.
During UT day 31 July, the solar wind speed was near its nominal
levels, varying in the range 310-380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
range was 1-6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied
mainly between +3/-4 nT. During the next UT day, 01 August, the
solar wind speed is expected to stay mostly near its nominal
levels. Enhancements in the solar wind speed are possible at
the end of UT day 01 August or beginning of 02 August due to
an extension of the northern polar coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11012000
Cocos Island 1 11011000
Darwin 2 21012001
Townsville 2 11112001
Learmonth 2 11112000
Alice Springs 1 11002000
Gingin 2 11002110
Canberra 1 00012000
Hobart 2 11012110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 00022100
Casey 4 12112210
Mawson 6 32012131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2120 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 7 Quiet
02 Aug 12 Unsettled
03 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 31 July, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet with some isolated unsettled periods.
Mostly quiet conditions are predicted for 01 August. The conditions
are expected to increase to unsettled levels at the end of UT
day 01 August or beginning of 02 August due to coronal hole effects.
There is a chance of isolated active periods on UT days 02-03
August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 01-02 August. Some degradation is
possible on 02-03 August due to expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced values on UT
day 31 July. The enhancements were observed mostly during local
night. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 01-03 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 23600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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