[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 27 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 28 09:31:29 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Apr 29 Apr 30 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day, 27 April. Very
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 28-30 April. The visible disc has two regions with sunspots,
AR2760 and SN62. No returning regions are expected. No Earth-bound
CMEs were observed in available LASCO and STEREO images. During
UT day 27 April, the solar wind speed varied between 370 and
450 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 3-7 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) varied between -5 to 3 nT. Solar
wind parameters are expected to stay mostly at nominal values
for the next three UT days, 28-30 April, with the possibility
of occasional enhancements due to weak coronal hole influences.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 21102211
Cocos Island 3 11112210
Darwin 3 20102211
Townsville 4 21102211
Learmonth 6 21112321
Alice Springs 3 20102211
Gingin 6 21103320
Canberra 3 11102210
Hobart 4 21112210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 11103220
Casey 9 33223221
Mawson 23 44222553
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 0212 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Apr 7 Quiet
29 Apr 7 Quiet
30 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 27 April, the geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were mainly at quiet levels. The Antarctic
region observed quiet to unsettled levels, with Mawson station
observing periods of active and minor storm levels. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to stay mainly at quiet levels for the
next three UT days, 28-30 April, with a chance of isolated unsettled
periods due to weak coronal hole influences.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements
on UT day 27 April. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 28-30 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Apr 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Apr 4 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Apr 4 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Apr 4 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mainly near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements
for the Australian region on UT day 27 April. Sporadic E layers
were observed over most sites. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions
are expected in the Australian regions for the next three UT
days, 28-30 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 58700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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