[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 02 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 3 09:31:28 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 2 September.
There is one region AR2748 at N14E08 (22:55 UT) on the visible
solar disk. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next
three UT days, 03 to 05 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During UT day
2 September, the solar wind speed showed a slight gradual decrease
from 710 km/s to 680 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) decreased from
6 nT to 3 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied
from +6 nT to -5 nT. The solar wind particle density varied between
1 ppcc and 2.5 ppcc during most parts of this day. Through UT
day 03 September, the solar wind speed is expected to show a
gradual decrease as the coronal hole effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Mostly quiet
to unsettled, isolated active periods
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 33322232
Cocos Island 9 23212331
Darwin 10 33322222
Townsville 12 33322233
Learmonth 12 33323232
Alice Springs 12 33322332
Gingin 16 43323342
Canberra 9 33321122
Launceston 18 34433333
Hobart 15 33433332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
Macquarie Island 21 43444243
Casey 18 44333333
Mawson 67 75642376
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 33
Planetary 49 5565 6355
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
04 Sep 6 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 2 September in the Australian region, geomagnetic
activity varied mostly between quiet and unsettled levels with
isolated active periods. In the Antarctic region, the activity
varied from unsettled to major storm levels. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to vary mostly from quiet to unsettled levels
on UT days 3 and 4 September with isolated active periods on
3 September. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to stay
at quiet levels on UT day 5 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 2 September. MUFs are expected to
stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three
UT days (3 to 5 September).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep -8 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep -7 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 2 September in the Australian region.
Sporadic E occurrences were observed over some Australian sites.
MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days (3 to 5 September) in the Australian
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 691 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 254000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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