[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 October 19 issued 2346 UT on 24 Oct 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 25 10:46:49 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 65/0 65/0 65/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day 24 October.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The
solar wind speed was at nominal levels between 00UT-10UT after
which it began to gradually increase from 400km/s up to a maximum
of 640km/s at the time of this report. The total IMF (Bt) was
<5nT between 00UT-06UT after which it has ranged between 3nT
and 13nT. The north south component of the IMF (Bz) went as southward
as -11.6nT at 0906UT and has since fluctuated between +/-8nT
with some short periods (<2hrs) of sustained southward Bz. Solar
wind speed is expected to remain at these elevated levels for
the next 24-48 hours under the influence of a high speed solar
wind stream associated with a positive-polarity coronal hole.
Very low solar activity is expected for 25Oct-27Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 12233332
Cocos Island 10 02132432
Darwin 10 12233332
Townsville 13 12243333
Learmonth 12 12233432
Alice Springs 10 12233332
Canberra 10 12133332
Hobart 12 02133442
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
Macquarie Island 25 01065532
Casey 13 23332333
Mawson 32 12143665
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 25 Active
26 Oct 20 Active
27 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 23 October
and is current for 23-25 Oct. Geomagnetic activity for the Australian/NZ
region was at Quiet to Unsettled levels over the last 24 hours
with Antarctic regions experiencing Active to Minor Storm conditions
due to the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a positive-polarity
coronal hole located just north of the equator. Active conditions
with possible Minor Storm periods are expected for 25Oct-26Oct
followed by mostly Unsettled conditions for 27Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
26 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies (MUFs) were slightly depressed
for low latitudes and some disturbed ionospheric support for
high latitudes observed for 24Oct. Depressed MUFs for low to
mid latitudes and Fair ionospheric support expected for high
latitudes 25Oct-26Oct due to recent geomagnetic activity returning
to mostly normal HF conditions on 27 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct -27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
26 Oct -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
27 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Notably depressed Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs)
observed over Northern AUS/Equatorial regions for 24Oct and some
periods of disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions.
MUF depressions of 30% possible for 25Oct-26Oct over Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions along with poor ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions due to recent geomagnetic activity. Ionospheric
recovery expected to commence 27Oct with MUFs at near predicted
monthly values for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 22500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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