[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 24 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 25 10:31:33 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 24 November.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days (25-27
November). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 24 November, the solar wind speed
gradually declined from around 520 km/s to currently around 450
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) decreased from around 6 nT, and is currently
varying between 2-4 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz)
was mainly southward, varying between -5 to +4 nT. The elevated
solar wind parameters are due to a high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent positive-polarity coronal hole and they are
expected to continue to gradually decline through 25-26 November.
The solar wind is expected to become moderately enhanced early
on 27 November due to a recurrent southern hemisphere negative-polarity
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 21123211
Cocos Island 4 20122201
Darwin 5 21122211
Townsville 5 21122211
Learmonth 6 21123212
Alice Springs 4 21122201
Gingin 6 21123202
Canberra 6 22123111
Hobart 6 22123211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
Macquarie Island 10 21235200
Casey 12 33432222
Mawson 31 64233336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 3223 4222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of an isolated
Active period
COMMENT: On UT day 24 November, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
to Unsettled levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region
observed mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels with isolated Active
to Moderate storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to stay at Quiet to Unsettled levels for the next three UT days,
25-27 November, with a chance of an isolated Active period on
UT day 27 November due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed during
the next 3 UT days, 25-27 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
26 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
27 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near monthly predicted values to depressed by up to 15-30%. Sporadic
E occurrences were observed over all of the sites. Minor to Moderate
MUF depressions may be observed in the Australian region during
the next 3 UT days, 25-27 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 89200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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