[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 23 Nov 2019

Sun Nov 24 10:31:43 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Nov             25 Nov             26 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 23 November. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots 
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels 
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days (24-26 
November). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 23 November, the solar wind speed 
was between 390 to 530 km/s, currently around 530 km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) reached a maximum of 9.4 nT at 23/1447 UT and is currently 
varying around 6-7 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) 
was mainly southward, reaching a minimum of -7.3 nT at 23/1318 
UT, and is currently varying between +/-5 nT. The elevated solar 
wind parameters are due to a high speed solar wind stream from 
a recurrent positive-polarity coronal hole and they are expected 
to gradually decline through 24-26 November.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   12133222
      Cocos Island         4   11112221
      Darwin               7   12123222
      Townsville           8   12233222
      Learmonth            7   21123222
      Alice Springs        7   11133222
      Gingin               9   21132332
      Canberra             7   12232222
      Hobart              10   12243222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    14   12254311
      Casey               17   35423232
      Mawson              21   43224453

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   4122 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 23 November, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet 
to Unsettled levels in the Australian region, with an isolated 
Active period observed at Hobart. The Antarctic region observed 
mainly Unsettled to Active levels with isolated Minor storm periods. 
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to stay at Quiet to Unsettled 
levels for the next three UT days, 24-26 November.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed during 
the next 3 UT days, 24-26 November.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Nov   -16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -20
Nov      -16
Dec      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
25 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
26 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near monthly predicted values to depressed by up to 15-30%. Sporadic 
E occurrences were observed over all of the sites. Minor to Moderate 
MUF depressions may be observed in the Australian region during 
the next 3 UT days, 24-26 November.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 546 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   182000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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