[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 November 19 issued 2347 UT on 17 Nov 2019

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 18 10:47:11 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Nov             19 Nov             20 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 17Nov. There are currently 
no sunspots on the visible disc and no Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind 
speed was slightly elevated, starting at ~425km/s at 00UT and 
then reaching a maximum of 488km/s at 0705UT. Solar wind speed 
has since declined to be ~360km/s at the time of this report. 
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +/-3nT 
over the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at ambient 
levels for the next 2 days. An expected increase in solar speed 
for 20Nov due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind 
stream. Very low solar activity is expected for the next three 
days. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event 
beginning 17/0430UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100111
      Cocos Island         2   11100111
      Darwin               2   21100102
      Townsville           2   21100111
      Learmonth            2   11100102
      Alice Springs        2   11100002
      Gingin               2   11100112
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Hobart               3   12200111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   11100001
      Casey               10   34311113
      Mawson              19   43212155

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2111 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Nov     6    Quiet
19 Nov     6    Quiet
20 Nov    14    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Quiet Geomagnetic conditions observed on 17Nov for the 
Australian/NZ region with Unsettled to Active conditions for 
Antarctic regions. Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for 
the next 2 days. Unsettled to Active conditions for the AUS/NZ 
region and Active to possible Minor Storm periods for Antarctic 
regions expected 20Nov due to a recurrent high speed solar wind 
stream from a positive polarity coronal hole (located just north 
of the equator).

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
19 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
20 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: HF conditions for 17Nov ranged from mild enhancements 
to moderate MUF depressions that were observed mostly in the 
Southern hemisphere at mid to low latitudes. Similar variable 
HF conditions are expected over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Nov   -28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -20
Nov      -16
Dec      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values
19 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values
20 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over the AUS/NZ region 
for 17Nov with maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranging from 
minor enhancements, near predicted monthly values and moderately 
depressed for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions. MUFs near 
predicted monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. 
Similar ionospheric support is expected for the next three days, 
with occasional moderate depressed periods for Equatorial, Northern 
AUS and Southern AUS and NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    40600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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