[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 November 19 issued 2347 UT on 17 Nov 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 18 10:47:11 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 17Nov. There are currently
no sunspots on the visible disc and no Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind
speed was slightly elevated, starting at ~425km/s at 00UT and
then reaching a maximum of 488km/s at 0705UT. Solar wind speed
has since declined to be ~360km/s at the time of this report.
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +/-3nT
over the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at ambient
levels for the next 2 days. An expected increase in solar speed
for 20Nov due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream. Very low solar activity is expected for the next three
days. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event
beginning 17/0430UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Cocos Island 2 11100111
Darwin 2 21100102
Townsville 2 21100111
Learmonth 2 11100102
Alice Springs 2 11100002
Gingin 2 11100112
Canberra 1 11100000
Hobart 3 12200111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 11100001
Casey 10 34311113
Mawson 19 43212155
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2111 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 6 Quiet
19 Nov 6 Quiet
20 Nov 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet Geomagnetic conditions observed on 17Nov for the
Australian/NZ region with Unsettled to Active conditions for
Antarctic regions. Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for
the next 2 days. Unsettled to Active conditions for the AUS/NZ
region and Active to possible Minor Storm periods for Antarctic
regions expected 20Nov due to a recurrent high speed solar wind
stream from a positive polarity coronal hole (located just north
of the equator).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions for 17Nov ranged from mild enhancements
to moderate MUF depressions that were observed mostly in the
Southern hemisphere at mid to low latitudes. Similar variable
HF conditions are expected over the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov -28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values
19 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values
20 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over the AUS/NZ region
for 17Nov with maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranging from
minor enhancements, near predicted monthly values and moderately
depressed for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions. MUFs near
predicted monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions.
Similar ionospheric support is expected for the next three days,
with occasional moderate depressed periods for Equatorial, Northern
AUS and Southern AUS and NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 40600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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