[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 November 19 issued 2352 UT on 16 Nov 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 17 10:52:05 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 16Nov. There are currently
no sunspots on the visible disc and no Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind
speed was slightly elevated, starting at ~380km/s at 00UT and
then ranging between 345km/s and 420km/s over the UT day. The
north south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +/-5 nT
between 00UT-17UT. Bz has since increased in magnitude to fluctuate
between +9nT and -7nT up until the time of this report. Solar
wind speed is expected to remain slightly elevated over the next
12-hours due whilst under the influence of a high speed solar
wind stream associated with a negative-polarity coronal hole
that crossed the central meridian 13Nov. Very low solar activity
is expected for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 12103222
Cocos Island 4 12012221
Darwin 6 12103222
Townsville 6 22103222
Learmonth 6 12013222
Alice Springs 5 12003222
Gingin 5 12102222
Canberra 2 12002101
Hobart 5 12112222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 11111211
Casey 14 34422133
Mawson 17 53123243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Nov 7 Quiet
19 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels
for the Australian region with Unsettled to Active conditions
for Antarctic regions. In the SWS magnetometer data for 16 Nov,
a weak (9nT) impulse was observed at 1256UT. Similar geomagnetic
activity is expected for the next 24 hours due to coronal hole
effects. Waning coronal hole influence on the solar wind should
result in mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions for the Australian/NZ
region for 18Nov-19Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions for 16Nov ranged from mild enhancements
to moderate MUF depressions that were observed mostly in the
Southern hemisphere at mid to low latitudes. Similar variable
HF conditions are expected over the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values
18 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values
19 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over the AUS/NZ region
for 16Nov with maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranging between
near predicted monthly values to moderately depressed for Equatorial
and Northern AUS regions. MUFs near predicted monthly values
for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. Similar ionospheric
support is expected for the next three days, with occasional
moderate depressed periods for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern
AUS and NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 30300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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