[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 14 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 15 10:31:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 14 November.
There are currently no spotted regions on the visible disc and
no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
15-17 November. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 14 November, the solar wind
speed was near its background levels, varying in the range 330-350
km/s. The total IMF Bt ranged between 2 nT and 5 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF Bz varied in the range -4/+4 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be mostly near its background levels
over the next 3 UT days, 15-17 November. Mild to moderate enhancements
in the solar wind speed are also possible due to small patchy
coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 22112001
Cocos Island 4 33110000
Darwin 3 13111001
Townsville 4 22112111
Learmonth 3 21112001
Alice Springs 4 23112000
Gingin 3 22012011
Canberra 2 21011000
Hobart 3 22112000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 12001000
Casey 7 23322012
Mawson 6 33221011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 5 Quiet
16 Nov 7 Quiet
17 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 14 November, geomagnetic activity was mostly
at quiet levels in the Australian region and in the Antarctic
region. The three day outlook (for UT days 15-17 November) is
for the global geomagnetic activity to be mostly at quiet levels
and at times it may increase to unsettled levels due to weak
coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed mostly
in the Southern hemisphere and in the equatorial regions, mostly
during local day. Mild to moderate MUF depressions may be observed
over the next three UT days, 15-17 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
16 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
17 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: During UT day 14 November, maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region varied between near predicted
monthly values and moderately depressed ones. Depressions were
observed mostly in the Northern Australian region. Sporadic-E
occurrences were seen over all the sites. For the next three
UT days, 15-17 November, mildly depressed to near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected over the Australian region. Moderate depressions
are also possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 42400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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