[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 13 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 14 10:31:24 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 13 November.
There are currently no spotted regions on the visible disc and
no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
14-16 November. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 13 November, the solar wind
speed was near its background levels, varying in the range 320-360
km/s. The total IMF Bt has returned to its nominal values, ranging
between 8 nT and 4 nT. The north-south component of the IMF Bz
was mostly positive, varying in the range -5/+6 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be mostly near its background levels
over the next 3 UT days, 14-16 November. Moderate enhancements
in the solar wind speed are also possible due to small patchy
coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11000011
Cocos Island 1 1110000-
Darwin 1 1000011-
Townsville 1 11000111
Learmonth 2 11000012
Alice Springs 0 1000001-
Gingin 1 1100011-
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 11000011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 0000000-
Casey 8 3332011-
Mawson 3 2111012-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 2000 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 5 Quiet
15 Nov 5 Quiet
16 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 13 November, geomagnetic activity was at quiet
levels in the Australian region and at quiet to unsettled levels
in the Antarctic region. The three day outlook (UT days 14-16
November) is for the global geomagnetic activity to be mostly
at quiet levels and at times it may increase to unsettled levels
due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed in the
Southern hemisphere and in the equatorial regions, mostly during
local day. Mild to moderate MUF depressions may be observed over
the next three UT days, 14-16 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov -36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
15 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
16 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions were observed over
the Australian region during UT day 13 November. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) varied between near predicted monthly values
to mildly and moderately depressed ones. Depressions were observed
mostly during local night. Mild enhancements were occasionally
observed during local day. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over
all the sites. For the next three UT days, 14-16 November, mildly
depressed to near predicted monthly MUFs are expected over the
Australian region. Moderate depressions are also possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 50500 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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