[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 01 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 2 10:31:34 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 01 November.
There is currently a weak sunspot in the SE quadrant. Very low
solar activity is expected for the next three UT days (02-04
November. Loop prominence activity observed on the SW limb staring
01/1545UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 01 November, the solar wind
speed was near its background levels, varying in the range 370-420
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT and 5 nT. The north-south
component of IMF, Bz, varied mainly between +/-3 nT. During the
next two UT days, 02-03 November, the solar wind speed is expected
to be mostly at nominal levels, although late on UT day 03 November
a negative polarity coronal hole may become geoeffective; this
may result in moderate enhancement in the solar wind speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 12110000
Cocos Island 1 01110100
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 2 12110010
Learmonth 2 12111100
Alice Springs 2 12110000
Canberra 2 12110000
Hobart 2 12111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 10 44221111
Mawson 9 34022113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 3000 0021
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 5 Quiet
03 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian was at Quiet
level on UT day 01 November. In the Antarctic regions, the geomagnetic
activity varied from Quiet to Active levels. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next
two UT days 02-03 November. Possible Unsettled periods from late
03 November due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed over
the next three UT days 02-04 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
03 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
04 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were moderately depressed
to near predicted monthly values for most regions during UT day
01 November. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed
over some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 02-04 November, MUFs
are expected to be between moderately depressed to near predicted
monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 81900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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