[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 May 19 issued 2342 UT on 23 May 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 24 09:42:22 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 23May. The sun is currently
spotless with no numbered regions on the visible solar disk and
there were no earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind speed has been
close to ambient levels, ranging between 328km/s to 377km/s and
is currently 344km/s at the time of this report. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +3 nT and -4 nT from
00UT to 16UT. A notable southward excursion was observed between
16UT-22UT with Bz reaching -5.8nT. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain at/near ambient levels for 24May and 26May. Chance
of enhanced solar wind speeds 25May due to mild coronal hole
effects. Very Low solar activity is expected over the next 3
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11121011
Cocos Island 2 11111011
Darwin 3 11121012
Townsville 4 12121012
Learmonth 3 11121021
Culgoora 3 01131011
Gingin 2 10020121
Canberra 1 01020000
Launceston 3 01031111
Hobart 3 01031011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
Macquarie Island 2 00031000
Casey 8 13420122
Mawson 20 22212165
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0121 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 5 Quiet
25 May 9 Quiet to Unsettled
26 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region. Quiet to Unsettled conditions for Antarctic
regions with an isolated Active period towards the end of the
UT day. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for the
Australian region 24May-26May with possible Unsettled periods
on 25May due to coronal hole effects. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for Antarctic regions for the same time period with possible
Active conditions 25May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during the last 24 hours. Variable ionospheric
support observed in the Northern Hemisphere with minor depressions
at high latitudes to occasional enhancements across all latitudes,
similarly with the southern hemisphere. Similar HF conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
25 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
26 May -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced during local night for
Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Variable
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions ranging from enhanced
MUF's to poor/disturbed conditions. Similar HF conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 28900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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