[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 May 19 issued 2332 UT on 22 May 2019

Thu May 23 09:32:56 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 May             24 May             25 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 22May. The sun is currently 
spotless with no numbered regions on the visible solar disk and 
there were no earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind speed was 359km/s 
at 00UT and reached a maximum of 398km/s at 0310UT before gradually 
declining to be 348km/s at the time of this report. The north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +2 nT and -3 nT with 
no significant sustained southward periods. Solar wind speed 
is expected to remain at ambient levels for the next 3 days. 
Very Low solar activity is expected over the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   02112011
      Cocos Island         2   02101010
      Darwin               3   02112011
      Townsville           3   02112011
      Learmonth            3   02112011
      Culgoora             2   02102011
      Gingin               3   02102021
      Canberra             1   01002000
      Launceston           3   12112011
      Hobart               1   01012000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   00012000
      Casey                4   03102121
      Mawson              14   03321045

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1211 2001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 May     5    Quiet
24 May     5    Quiet
25 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region with Quiet to Unsettled conditions for Antarctic 
regions. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for the 
Australian region and Quiet to Unsettled conditions for Antarctic 
regions between 23May-25May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during the last 24 hours with moderate depressions 
observed in the Northern Hemisphere to occasional enhancements 
across all latitudes in the southern hemisphere. Similar HF conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 May    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -12
Jun      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
24 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
25 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted 
monthly values to moderately enhanced during local night for 
Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Variable 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions ranging from enhanced 
MUF's to poor/disturbed conditions. Similar HF conditions are 
expected for the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 405 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    46300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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