[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 March 19 issued 2352 UT on 14 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 15 10:52:59 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 14th March. The visible
disc is currently spotless and there were no earth directed CME's
observed in the available imagery. The solar wind speed ranged
between 322km/s and 367km/s over the UT day and is currently
350km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) was predominantly southward at approx -3nT for
most of the UT day and ranging between +4 and -6nT. Solar wind
speed is expected to increase on 15Mar due to the anticipated
onset of a high speed solar wind stream from an equatorial located
negative polarity coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to
remain Very Low for the next 3 days with only slight chance for
C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 10113222
Cocos Island 4 11102122
Darwin 4 01112122
Townsville 5 10113222
Learmonth 8 11113233
Alice Springs 5 10113122
Culgoora 5 00113222
Gingin 7 00113233
Canberra 5 00113222
Launceston 7 11223222
Hobart 5 00123212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 00134201
Casey 13 33323124
Mawson 27 12313366
Davis 14 12323235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1 2 1 .. (insufficient data)
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
16 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the Australian/NZ
region for 14Mar and Unsettled to Minor Storm conditions observed
for Antarctic regions. Quiet conditions initially are expected
for 15Mar for AUS/NZ region with possible Unsettled to Active
periods and Active to Minor Storm periods possible for Antarctic
regions due to the anticipated arrival of a high speed solar
wind stream from an equatorial located coronal hole. Quiet to
Unsettled conditions expected for 16Mar to 17Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for 14Mar at low latitudes
ranging from mildly depressed MUFs to slightly enhanced. MUFs
near predicted monthly value for mid latitudes while occasional
disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes. Similar HF
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with the chance of
significantly depressed MUFs for high to mid latitudes due to
increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for 14Mar with notable
MUF depressions for Equatorial/Northern AUS regions along with
occasional enhanced periods. MUFs near predicted monthly value
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and periods fo disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days with the chance of notable MUF depressions
for Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions due to expected increase
in geomagnetic activity over this time.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 31000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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