[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 March 19 issued 2343 UT on 13 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 14 10:43:10 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 13th March. The visible
disc is currently spotless and there were no earth directed CME's
observed in the available imagery. The solar wind speed ranged
between 330km/s and 372km/s over the UT day and is currently
349km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +4 and -5nT with no sustained
southward excursions. Solar wind speed is expected to remain
at nominal levels untill the latter half of the UT day 14Mar
after which the onset of a high speed solar wind stream from
an equatorial located negative polarity coronal hole is expected.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3
days with only slight chance for C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 11110010
Cocos Island 1 10100110
Darwin 2 12110011
Townsville 2 11111011
Learmonth 1 11100010
Alice Springs 1 01110010
Culgoora 1 01110010
Gingin 2 11110120
Canberra 1 01110010
Launceston 3 12211011
Hobart 2 02110010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 12110000
Casey 12 34431121
Mawson 9 23222133
Davis 7 23231121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1032 2001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
16 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the Australian/NZ region
for 13Mar and Unsettled to Active conditions observed for Antarctic
regions. Quiet conditions initially are expected for 14Mar for
AUS/NZ region with possible Unsettled to Active periods late
in the UT day and Active to Minor Storm periods possible for
Antarctic regions due to the anticipated arrival of a high speed
solar wind stream from an equatorial located coronal hole. Unsettled
to Active conditions expected for 15Mar and Quiet to Unsettled
conditions for 16Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for 13Mar at low
to mid latitudes. Occasional disturbed ionospheric support for
high latitudes. Chance of variable ionospheric support with possible
enhanced periods and degraded HF conditions for 14-15 March at
mid-high latitudes due to an expected increase in geomagnetic
activity. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values 16Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 13Mar
with slightly depressed conditions during local day for Equatorial/Northern
AUS regions. Variable HF conditions expected for 14Mar-15Mar
ranging from possible enhancements to notable depressed ionospheric
support for Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions due to expected
increase in geomagnetic activity over this time. MUFs expected
to be near predicted monthly value for 16Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 44200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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