[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 June 19 issued 2334 UT on 29 Jun 2019

Sun Jun 30 09:34:58 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jun             01 Jul             02 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 29 June. 
There is currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the visible 
solar disk. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 
3 UT days, 30 June to 2 July. There were no Earth-directed CMEs 
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 29 June, 
the solar wind speed varied between 300-370 km/s. The total IMF 
(Bt) varied between 1-5 nT. The north-south component of the 
IMF (Bz) varied between -4 to +3 nT. The solar wind is expected 
to be mainly at background levels for the next 3 UT days, 30 
June to 2 July, but may become weakly enhanced on 1 July due 
to the influence of a small negative polarity coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   11000000
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           1   11000001
      Learmonth            0   10100000
      Alice Springs        0   11000000
      Culgoora             0   01000001
      Gingin               0   00000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           0   01000000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   12100001
      Mawson               5   31111013
      Davis                4   11210103

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              3   2100 0111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jun     5    Quiet
01 Jul     7    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region for the UT day 29 June. Mainly Quiet levels 
were observed in the Antarctic region, with some isolated Unsettled 
periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly 
Quiet levels on 30 June, then may increase to Quiet to Unsettled 
on 1 July due to the possible influence of a small coronal hole, 
returning to mainly Quiet on 2 July.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
29 June. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the 
next 3 UT days, 30 June to 2 July.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Jun    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced at times for 
all regions today, UT day 29 June. Sporadic-E and Spread F occurrences 
were observed over some Australian sites. For UT days 30 June 
to 2 July, MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly 
levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    41000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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