[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 28 Jun 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 29 09:31:22 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jun             30 Jun             01 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 28 June. 
The visible solar disk has one unnumbered sunspot region. Very 
Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 29 June 
to 1 July. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the 
available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 28 June, the solar wind 
speed varied between 320-370 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied 
between 3-6 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied 
between +/-4 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain at background 
levels for the next 2 UT days, 29-30 June, then may become weakly 
enhanced on 1 July due to the influence of a small negative polarity 
coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10100000
      Cocos Island         0   10100000
      Darwin               1   21100000
      Townsville           2   21100001
      Learmonth            0   10000000
      Alice Springs        0   10100000
      Culgoora             0   10100000
      Gingin               0   10000100
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Launceston           2   20101100
      Hobart               0   10000100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   21200100
      Mawson               7   32100133
      Davis                3   11210111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   2100 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jun     5    Quiet
30 Jun     5    Quiet
01 Jul     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region for the UT day 28 June. Mainly Quiet levels 
were observed in the Antarctic region, with Quiet to Unsettled 
levels observed at Mawson. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be at mostly Quiet levels on 29-30 June, then may increase 
to Quiet to Unsettled on 1 July due to the possible influence 
of a small coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
28 June. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the 
next 3 UT days, 29 June to 1 July.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jun    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced at times for 
all regions today, UT day 28 June. Sporadic-E and Spread F occurrences 
were observed over some Australian sites. For UT days 29 June 
to 1 July, MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly 
levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 369 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    52500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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