[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 16 Jun 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 17 09:31:21 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun:  66/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jun             18 Jun             19 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for UT day 16 June. 
There are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Very Low solar 
activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 17-19 June. There 
were no earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 16 June, the solar wind speed remained at 
nominal levels, currently ~ 340 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied 
mostly between 2 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component of 
the IMF (Bz) varied in the range +/- 3 nT. The solar wind is 
expected to be moderately enhanced over the next 3 UT days, 17-19 
June due the influence of a patchy equatorial negative polarity 
coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Cocos Island         1   12100000
      Darwin               2   12100001
      Townsville           1   12100000
      Learmonth            1   11100000
      Alice Springs        0   01100000
      Culgoora             0   01100000
      Gingin               0   01100000
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Launceston           1   11100000
      Hobart               0   01100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   01100000
      Casey                2   12110010
      Mawson              11   43211114
      Davis                3   12220002

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1222 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jun    15    Quiet to Active
18 Jun    15    Quiet to Active
19 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at Quiet levels across 
the Australian region for the UT day 16 June. Mostly Quiet levels 
were observed in Antarctica with Isolated Active periods at Mawson 
station. On UT days 17-18 June, geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be at Quiet to Active levels due to coronal hole influences, 
returning to mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels on 19 June. A period 
of significant southward Bz component could produce an isolated 
Minor Storm period over the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
19 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jun   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun   -15    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun   -15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged near predicted 
monthly values for the Australian region today, 16 June. Mildly 
depressed MUFs observed at times over the Equatorial region. 
Sporadic-E and Spread F occurrences were observed over some Australian 
ionosonde sites. Similar HF conditions are expected over the 
next 24 hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    41700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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