[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 June 19 issued 2332 UT on 07 Jun 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 8 09:32:48 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 7 June. There
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. There were no earth-directed
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT
days, 8-10 June. During the UT day 7 June, the solar wind speed
was at background levels, varying between 280 and 310 km/s. The
IMF Btotal started the UT day varying between 2-4 nT, then increased
after 07/0600 UT to vary between 4 to 7 nT. Bz varied between
-5 to 3 nT and was mainly negative. On UT day 8 June the solar
wind speed is expected to be mostly near its background levels
but may become enhanced at times due to minor coronal hole effects.
On UT days 9-10 June, the solar wind may become moderately enhanced
due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a negative
polarity equatorial coronal hole. The results of modeling the
small CME, observed in STEREO A coronagraph imagery on 3 June,
have shown that the slow moving CME (230 km/s) may have a glancing
blow on Earth on 8 June but any impacts are expected to be weak.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 00111210
Cocos Island 2 00111210
Darwin 2 01111201
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 2 00111210
Alice Springs 1 00001201
Culgoora 1 00101100
Gingin 2 00100310
Canberra 0 00100100
Launceston 2 00111210
Hobart 1 00110110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00200000
Casey 4 12111211
Mawson 15 32122245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1111 1010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active periods
10 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active periods
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at mainly Quiet levels across
the Australian region for the UT day 7 June. Mostly Quiet levels
were observed in Antarctica, with Quiet to Active levels observed
at Mawson. For the next 3 UT days, 8-10 June, the global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels,
with a chance of isolated Active periods on 9-10 June due to
coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: During the last 24 hours maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values and mildly enhanced.
Mild to moderate depressions were also observed across the mid
and high latitude regions in the Northern hemisphere. Variable
HF conditions are expected for 8 June. Occasional enhancements
are possible across all latitudes. For the Northern hemisphere,
mildly to moderately depressed MUFs are likely for mid to high
latitudes. For the Southern hemisphere, near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected with disturbed ionospheric support for high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jun -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 2
Jun -11
Jul -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for Australian
regions and Antarctica. The Cocos Island Region experienced mild
depressions during the local day. Sporadic-E occurrences were
observed over some Australian ionosonde sites. For 8-10 June,
MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 20700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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