[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 June 19 issued 2338 UT on 06 Jun 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 7 09:38:07 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 6 June. There
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. There were no earth-directed
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT
days, 7-9 June. During the UT day 6 June, the solar wind speed
was at background levels, varying between 290 and 330 km/s. The
IMF Btotal peaked at 4 nT at 06/0707 UT, then gradually decreased,
currently between 1-3 nT. Bz varied between +/-2 nT. On UT days
7-8 June the solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near its
background levels but may become enhanced at times due to minor
coronal hole effects. On 9 June, the solar wind may become moderately
enhanced due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from
a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole. The results of modeling
the small CME, observed in STEREO A coronagraph imagery on 3
June, have shown that the slow moving CME (230 km/s) may have
a glancing blow on Earth on 8 June but any impacts are expected
to be weak.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 00000000
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 0 10000001
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 0 00000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Culgoora 0 01100000
Gingin 0 00000010
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 01100000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 12100010
Mawson 5 21101033
Davis 2 02101021
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of Active periods
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region for the UT day 6 June. Mostly Quiet levels
were observed in Antarctica, with an isolated Unsettled period.
For the next 3 UT days, 7-9 June, the global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels, with a
chance of Active periods on 9 June due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: During the last 24 hours maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values and mildly enhanced.
Mild to moderate depressions were also observed across the mid
and high latitude regions in the Northern hemisphere. Variable
HF conditions are expected for 7 June. Occasional enhancements
are possible across all latitudes. For the Northern hemisphere,
mildly to moderately depressed MUFs are likely for mid to high
latitudes. For the Southern hemisphere, near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected with disturbed ionospheric support for high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jun -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 2
Jun -11
Jul -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for Australian
regions and Antarctica. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed
over some Australian ionosonde sites. For 7-9 June, MUFs are
expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 30200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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