[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 January 19 issued 2334 UT on 26 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 27 10:34:14 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 26 January, with
one C-class flare and several B-class flares, all from Action
Region 2733. This Region is currently located at N06W31 at 26/2300
UT. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next
3 UT days, 27-29 January, with a chance of C-class flare due
to the flaring potential of Region 2733. No Earth directed CMEs
were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day
26 January, the solar wind speed declined from 550 km/s to 450
km/s in response to the waning effect of the positive polarity
equatorial coronal hole. During this period, the total IMF (Bt)
was mostly steady near 4 nT. The north-south component of IMF
(Bz) fluctuated between -4 nT to +4 nT without significant southward
Bz conditions. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to
decline towards its nominal level as the effect of the coronal
hole wanes further.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 12223201
Cocos Island 5 221122--
Darwin 8 14412100
Townsville 6 12223211
Learmonth 8 22224201
Alice Springs 6 12223201
Culgoora 5 12223200
Canberra 3 01122200
Launceston 7 22223212
Hobart 7 12223301
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 11123301
Casey 20 25543311
Mawson 16 53323322
Davis 15 42334322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 2233 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 7 Quiet
28 Jan 7 Quiet
29 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 26 January. Unsettled to Active
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed
disturbed conditions are because the Earth was under the influence
of moderately elevated solar wind streams associated with the
equatorial coronal hole. Today (UT day 27 January) the global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels
and at times may reach Unsettled levels due to coronal hole effects.
Then mostly Quiet conditions are expected from UT day 28 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 26 January, due to very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun and recent geomagnetic activity there
were MUF depressions at times over the Southern high latitude
regions compared to the monthly predicted levels. Similar HF
conditions are expected for the next 2 UT days, 27 and 28 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan -21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 26 January, MUFs were slightly depressed over
most Australian region as the aftermath of the recent geomagnetic
disturbance associated with the coronal hole and very low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun. Near predicted to depressed
MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 27-29 January,
as a consequence of very low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 589 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 270000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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