[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 16 10:30:20 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 15 January. The
Sun is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 16-18 January. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 15 January, the solar wind speed decreased to around 330
km/s near the start of the UT day, then started to increase around
15/0600 UT to a peak of 432 km/s at 15/2018 UT, currently around
410 km/s. During the last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) fluctuated
between 4 to 9 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated
between -5 to 6 nT. The solar wind is expected to become enhanced
16 January due recurrent coronal hole activity, then return to
nominal conditions on 17 and 18 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11111121
Cocos Island 3 11111121
Darwin 4 12111122
Townsville 4 12111212
Learmonth 6 21122222
Alice Springs 3 11111111
Culgoora 3 11111121
Gingin 4 30111121
Canberra 3 11111121
Launceston 5 12111222
Hobart 4 12111121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 11002010
Casey 15 34432232
Mawson 10 42222232
Davis 10 32332231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2122 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jan 6 Quiet
18 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mainly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 15 January. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions were observed in the Antarctic regions, with some
isolated Active periods. Geomagnetic activity may increase to
Unsettled levels on UT day 16 January in the Australian region,
while Antarctic regions may experience isolated Active or Minor
Storm periods, due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic
activity in the Australian region is expected to return to Quiet
levels on UT days 17-18 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions likely for the Southern
Hemisphere over the next 3 days. MUFs near predicted monthly
values or occasional enhancements for Northern Hemisphere. MUF
degradations are a consequence of the very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan -34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
17 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
18 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 15 January, there were minor to moderate MUF
depressions across the Niue Island and Australian regions as
compared to the monthly predicted levels, with some severe MUF
depressions during the local night in the Northern Australian
region. Sporadic E layers were observed across the Australian
region and in Antarctica. Similar levels of ionospheric support
are expected for the next 3 days with MUFs either near predicted
monthly values or mildly to moderately depressed due to continued
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 79800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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