[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 January 19 issued 2339 UT on 14 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 15 10:39:12 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 14 January. The
Sun is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 15-17 January. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 14 January, the solar wind speed increased to a peak of 420
km/s at 14/0758 UT then gradually decreased, currently around
350 km/s. During the last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) reached
a maximum of 11 nT at 14/0114 UT, then fluctuated between 0 to
7 nT for the remainder of the period. The north-south component
of IMF (Bz) reached a minimum of nearly -9 nT at 14/0115 UT,
then fluctuated between -5 to 6 nT. The solar wind is expected
to become enhanced on 15 and 16 January due recurrent coronal
hole activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22222212
Cocos Island 5 22211211
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 6 22222212
Learmonth 6 22222212
Alice Springs 6 22222212
Culgoora 6 22222212
Gingin 6 21222311
Canberra 6 22222211
Launceston 8 22322213
Hobart 7 22322212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 11112111
Casey 16 44432322
Mawson 13 44322222
Davis 14 33432332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1200 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mainly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 14 January with some Unsettled
periods at higher latitudes. Unsettled to Active conditions were
observed in the Antarctic regions. Geomagnetic activity may increase
to Unsettled levels on UT days 15 and 16 January, while Antarctic
regions may experience isolated Active or Minor Storm periods,
due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic activity in
the Australian region is expected to return to Quiet levels on
UT day 17 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions likely for the Southern
Hemisphere over the next 3 days. MUFs near predicted monthly
values or occasional enhancements for Northern Hemisphere. MUF
degradations are a consequence of the very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
16 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
17 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 14 January, there were mild to moderate MUF
depressions across the Australian region as compared to the monthly
predicted levels, with some severe MUF depressions during the
local night in the Northern Australian region. Notable Sporadic
E layers observed at low to mid latitude stations. Similar levels
of ionospheric support are expected for the next 3 days with
MUFs either near predicted monthly values or mildly to moderately
depressed due to continued low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 305 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 13000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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