[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 January 19 issued 2338 UT on 12 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 13 10:38:52 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the 12th January. The
sun is currently spotless and no earth directed CME's were visible
in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed (Vsw)
was 458km/s at 01UT and gradually declined to be 356km/s at the
time of this report. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated
between +1nT and -2nT over the UT day. Vsw is expected to remain
at these nominal levels over the next 2-3 days with the chance
of brief enhancements due to small southern hemisphere located
negative polarity coronal holes. Solar activity is expected to
be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11101101
Cocos Island 1 11010100
Darwin 1 11001101
Townsville 4 22111111
Learmonth 3 11111201
Alice Springs 2 21001101
Culgoora 2 11102101
Gingin 2 21002100
Canberra 0 10001000
Launceston 3 11112111
Hobart 2 11102101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
Mawson 7 32111132
Davis 9 23222232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1131 1010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan 7 Quiet
15 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed in the AUS/NZ
region for 12th January. Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed
for Antarctic regions. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected
for the AUS/NZ regions for the next 3 days while Antarctic regions
may experience isolated Active or Minor Storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs likely for Southern Hemisphere
circuits over the next 3 days. MUFs near predicted monthly values
or occasional enhancements for Northern Hemisphere. MUF degradations
are a consequence of the very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan -38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan -35 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan -35 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jan -35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs depressions ranging from 10%-30% were observed
for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions over
the last 24 hours. MUFs were near predicted monthly values for
Antarctic regions. Notable Sporadic E layers observed at low
to mid latitude stations. Similar levels of ionospheric support
are expected for the next 3 days with MUFs either near predicted
monthly values or mildly depressed due to continued low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 452 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 154000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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