[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 January 19 issued 2349 UT on 11 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sat Jan 12 10:49:53 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jan             13 Jan             14 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the 11th January. The 
sun is currently spotless and no earth directed CME's were visible 
in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed (Vsw) 
was slightly elevated and ranged from 470km/s-515km/s between 
00UT-06UT. Vsw then gradually decline to be ~420km/s at the time 
of this report. This increase is likely due to the influence 
of small southern-hemisphere located negative-polarity coronal 
holes. Similar enhancements of the solar wind speed are expected 
over the next 3 days. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated 
between +4nT and -7nT over the UT day with a notable sustained 
southward period between 04UT-07UT. Solar activity is expected 
to be Very Low for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22312111
      Cocos Island         4   21311110
      Darwin               6   22312112
      Townsville           6   22312111
      Learmonth            7   32312121
      Alice Springs        6   22312111
      Culgoora             6   22312111
      Gingin               6   22312111
      Canberra             3   11302000
      Launceston           6   22312121
      Hobart               5   22302111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
      Mawson              13   34323223
      Davis               18   34533232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1011 1001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed in 
the AUS/NZ region for 11th January due to a brief enhancement 
in the solar wind attributed to small sized southern-hemisphere 
located negative-polarity coronal holes. Unsettled to Active 
conditions observed for Antarctic regions. Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions are expected for the AUS/NZ regions for the next 3 
days while Antarctic regions may experience isolated Active or 
Minor Storm periods.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
13 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
14 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs likely for Southern Hemisphere 
circuits over the next 3 days. MUFs near predicted monthly values 
or occasional enhancements for Northern Hemisphere. MUF degradations 
are a consequence of the very low levels of ionising radiation 
from the Sun.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Jan   -35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -32
Jan      -12
Feb      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs depressions ranging from 10%-30% were observed 
for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions over 
the last 24 hours. MUFs were near predicted monthly values for 
Antarctic regions. Notable Sporadic E layers observed from some 
low to mid latitude stations. Similar levels of ionospheric support 
are expected for the next 3 days with MUFs either near predicted 
monthly values or mildly depressed due to continued low levels 
of ionising radiation from the Sun.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    54800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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