[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 4 10:30:20 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 3 January. There
is currently one active region on the visible solar disc, AR
2732. During the next three UT days, 4-6 January, solar activity
is expected to remain mostly very low with a small chance for
C-class flares. A 52 deg long disappearing solar filament was
observed from 3/1804 UT to 3/1948 UT. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar
wind speed during the last 24 hours varied in the range 290-330
km/s, currently at 310 km/s. During this period the total IMF
(Bt) varied in the range 2-5 nT and the north-south component
of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -3 nT and +2 nT. On 4 January,
the solar wind speed may increase up to moderate levels due to
expected arrival of the corotating interaction region and high
speed solar wind streams associated with a recurrent coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 21010001
Townsville 1 11010001
Learmonth 0 11000000
Alice Springs 1 11000001
Culgoora 1 00110001
Gingin 1 11110000
Canberra 0 00010001
Launceston 2 11111001
Hobart 1 10111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
Casey 4 22221001
Mawson 4 31011012
Davis 4 12121111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 3 January. Mostly quiet conditions were observed
in Antarctica. During the next 3 UT days, 4-6 January, the global
geomagnetic activity is expected to vary mostly between quiet
and unsettled levels. The predicted increase in geomagnetic activity
is due to expected arrival of the corotating interaction region
and high speed solar wind streams associated with a recurrent
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions are possible on 4 January as a
consequence of the continued very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan -33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
05 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
06 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 3 January
and is current for 4 Jan only. Mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs were observed on 3 January across the Australian region;
mild MUF depressions were also seen, mostly in the Northern Australian
region. Strong Sporadic E layers were seen across the Australian
region and in Antarctica. Similar levels of ionospheric support
are expected for the next 3 UT days, 4-6 January, with mild depressions
being likely due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun and predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 29300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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