[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 23 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 24 10:30:20 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 23 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
24-26 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 23/2012 UT. On UT day 23 February,
the solar wind speed decreased from 420 km/s to around 340 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 to 4 nT and the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) varied in the between +/-3 nT. The outlook
for the next two UT days (24-25 February) is for the solar wind
speed to remain at background levels. The solar wind is expected
to start increasing on UT day 26 February due to the effects
of a recurrent negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 01100110
Cocos Island 1 11100100
Darwin 2 00100112
Townsville 1 01100111
Learmonth 2 01100210
Alice Springs 1 01100111
Gingin 1 00100110
Canberra 1 01100010
Launceston 2 01200110
Hobart 1 01100110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 7 23410111
Mawson 5 30101132
Davis 4 21201121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2111 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 4 Quiet
25 Feb 4 Quiet
26 Feb 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region and Quiet to Active levels were seen in Antarctica on
UT day 23 February. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to
be at mainly Quiet levels on UT days 24-25 February then increase
to Unsettled to Active levels on UT day 26 February due to coronal
hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 23 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over most regions. Mild to moderate depressions
were observed in the Southern hemisphere, mostly during the local
day. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed in the
Southern hemisphere during the next three UT days, 24-26 February,
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
25 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
26 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 23 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over most of the Australian region. The Cocos
Island region experienced mild to moderate enhancements during
both the local day and local night. The Northern Australian region
experienced mild depressions during the local day and enhancements
during the local night. Some periods of sporadic E layers were
seen across the region. During the next three UT days, 24-26
February, MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted
levels. However, mild to moderate depressions are possible due
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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