[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 22 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 23 10:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 22 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
23-25 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 22/1836 UT. For a short period at the
start of the UT day 22 February, the solar wind speed increased
to around 500 km/s, then decreased to around 470 km/s followed
by a gradual decline, currently around 420 km/s. During the UT
day 22 February, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 to 5 nT
and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied in the between
-3 to 5 nT. On 23 February, the solar wind speed is expected
to continue to decrease as the influence of the recent recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole wanes, returning to nominal conditions
on 24-25 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 11111101
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 11111101
Townsville 3 21111111
Learmonth 2 11111100
Alice Springs 2 11111101
Culgoora 2 1111010-
Gingin 2 11211100
Canberra 2 10210101
Launceston 3 11211101
Hobart 3 11211101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 10110000
Casey 11 34421112
Mawson 9 32212114
Davis 7 22332011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2141 2103
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 7 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Feb 4 Quiet
25 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mainly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region and Quiet to Active levels were seen in
Antarctica on UT day 22 February. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day 23 February
as the influence of the recent coronal hole wanes. Conditions
should be at mainly Quiet levels on UT days 24-25 February as
the solar wind returns to nominal levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 22 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over most regions. Mild to moderate depressions
were observed in the Southern hemisphere, mostly during the local
day. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed in the
Southern hemisphere during the next three UT days, 23-25 February,
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
25 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 22 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over the Australian region. In the Cocos Island
and Northern Australian regions, mild to moderate enhancements
were observed during the local night. The Antarctic region experienced
minor depressions over the UT day. Sporadic E layers were seen
across the region. During the next three UT days, 23-25 February,
MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted levels.
However, mild to moderate depressions are possible due to continued
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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