[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 February 19 issued 2337 UT on 20 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 21 10:37:02 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 20 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
21-23 February. A filament eruption occurred near N07E04 resulting
in an A9.7 flare peaking at 20/0424 UT, and a narrow slow moving
CME. From preliminary modelling results, the CME is not expected
to be Earth-directed. No other CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 20/1724 UT. On UT day 20 February,
the solar wind speed was at background levels, reaching a minimum
around 300 km/s in the middle of the UT day, then gradually increasing
to a maximum of 361 km/s at 20/2221 UT, currently around 360
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged from 1 nT to 4 nT at the start
of the UT day then began to increase after 20/1400 UT, reaching
a peak of 9.7 nT at 20/2233 UT. The north-south component of
IMF (Bz) varied in the range +/-3 nT at the start of the UT day.
The variations increased to between +/-8 nT after about 20/1500
UT, reaching a minimum of -7.5 at 20/2224 UT. On 21 February,
the solar wind speed is expected to continue to increase in response
to the high speed solar streams associated with the recurrent
positive polarity patchy coronal hole. The enhanced solar winds
should continue on UT day 22 February then begin to wane on UT
day 23 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11101212
Cocos Island 1 01100111
Darwin 3 11101212
Townsville 4 20101213
Learmonth 2 00101212
Alice Springs 3 11101212
Culgoora 3 11001212
Gingin 2 00100112
Canberra 1 00000112
Launceston 4 01101213
Hobart 2 01001112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 01000102
Casey 8 23311222
Mawson 6 32200123
Davis 7 22311222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0010 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Feb 12 Quiet to Active
22 Feb 10 Quiet to Active
23 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mainly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region and Quiet to Unsettled levels were seen
in Antarctica on UT day 20 February. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase to Unsettled levels and occasionally
Active levels on UT days 21-22 February in response to the expected
arrival of the corotating interaction region and high speed solar
wind streams associated with the recurrent positive polarity
patchy coronal hole. Conditions should decrease to Quiet to Unsettled
levels on UT day 23 February as the influence of the coronal
hole wanes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 20 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over most regions. Mild to moderate depressions
were observed in the Southern hemisphere, mostly during the local
day. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed in the
Southern hemisphere during the next three UT days, 21-23 February,
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Feb -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 20 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over the Australian region. In the Northern
Australian and Cocos Island regions, mild to moderate enhancements
were observed during the local night and mild depressions were
observed during the local day. Sporadic E layers were seen across
the region. During the next three UT days, 21-23 February, MUFs
are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted levels. However,
mild to moderate depressions are possible due to continued very
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 15500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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