[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 19 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 20 10:30:20 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 19 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
20-22 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 19/1824 UT. On UT day 19 February,
the solar wind speed was at background levels, gradually declining
from 360 to 310 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total IMF (Bt)
ranged from 2 nT to 4 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz)
varied in the range -4 to 3 nT. Either late on 19 February or
early on 20 February, the solar wind speed is expected to start
increasing in response to the approaching high speed solar streams
associated with the recurrent positive polarity patchy coronal
hole. The enhanced solar winds should continue on UT day 21 February
then begin to wane on UT day 22 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 11100100
Cocos Island 1 10100100
Darwin 1 11100101
Townsville 2 11100111
Learmonth 2 20100110
Alice Springs 1 11000100
Culgoora 1 11000101
Gingin 2 21000110
Canberra 0 01000100
Launceston 2 11111110
Hobart 0 01000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 33321011
Mawson 8 22111143
Davis 5 22221120
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2301 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 10 Quiet to Active
21 Feb 15 Quiet to Active
22 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region and Quiet to Active levels were seen in Antarctica on
UT day 19 February. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to
increase to Unsettled levels and occasionally Active levels on
UT days 20-21 February in response to the expected arrival of
the corotating interaction region and high speed solar wind streams
associated with the recurrent positive polarity patchy coronal
hole. Conditions should decrease to Quiet to Unsettled levels
on UT day 22 February as the influence of the coronal hole wanes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 19 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over most regions. Mild to moderate depressions
were observed in the Southern hemisphere, mostly during the local
day. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed in the
Southern hemisphere during the next three UT days, 20-22 February,
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 19 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over the Australian region. Mild to moderate
enhancements were observed in Northern Australian and Cocos Island
regions during the local night. Moderate depressions were observed
in the Northern Australian region during the local day. Sporadic
E layers were seen across the region. During the next three UT
days, 20-22 February, MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly
predicted levels. However, mild to moderate depressions are possible
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 39800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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