[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 24 Aug 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 25 09:31:45 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 24 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next three UT days, 25-27 August. There were
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 24 August, the solar wind speed was near its
background level, around 350 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) remained
below 3 nT during 24 August. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain mainly at background level for 25-26 August and increase
mildly during 27 August under coronal hole influences.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 22020110
Cocos Island 1 11010110
Darwin 3 22110111
Townsville 4 22120111
Learmonth 3 22110110
Alice Springs 1 11010101
Gingin 2 11120110
Canberra 2 22020000
Launceston 3 22020110
Hobart 3 22020110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 21030000
Casey 4 22220110
Mawson 12 33223233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1311 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 5 Quiet
26 Aug 5 Quiet
27 Aug 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: On UT day 24 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
were recorded in the Australian region. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels during UT days 25-26
August. On 27 August, Unsettled levels and isolated Active periods
are possible due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 24 August. Slight depressions were
observed at times across Northern Australian. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly levels for UT days 25-27
August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 36700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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