[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 24 Apr 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 25 09:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 24 April. There
are currently no sunspots on the solar disk visible from the
Earth. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the
next 3 UT days, 25-27 April. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 24 April, the
solar wind speed ranged between 350 km/s and 430 km/s, gradually
decreasing on average, currently near 350 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) varied mostly between 3 nT and 7 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -4/+2 nT without
significant periods of negative Bz. For the next UT day, 25 April,
the solar wind speed is expected to return to moderately elevated
levels due to high speed solar wind streams associated with a
recurrent coronal hole. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 24/0500UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 21022211
Cocos Island 3 21121200
Darwin 4 11112211
Townsville 5 22122211
Learmonth 5 22122211
Alice Springs 4 21022211
Culgoora 4 21022210
Gingin 5 31022211
Canberra 4 21032200
Launceston 7 21033311
Hobart 6 21032311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Apr :
Macquarie Island 6 11033300
Casey 6 32122211
Mawson 23 64223234
Davis 11 43322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 1101 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 12 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels across
the Australian region and at Quiet to Major Storm levels in Antarctica
on UT day 24 April. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels on 25-27 April. Isolated
active periods are possible for 25 April. The expected increase
in the geomagnetic activity is due to effects associated with
a recurrent coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced levels over the last 24
hours. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 25-27 April. Moderately
elevated MUFs are likely for 25 April due to predicted increase
in the geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Apr 3 Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced levels during the last
24 hours for Australian region. Mostly normal HF conditions and
near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for the next three UT
days, 25-27 April, in the Australian/NZ regions. Moderately elevated
MUFs are likely for 25 April due to predicted increase in the
geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 35200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list