[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 April 19 issued 2331 UT on 20 Apr 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 21 09:31:38 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 20 April. Region
2738 produced several B-class flares, the largest being a B8.1
flare that peaked at 0050UT/20 April. This region has now rotated
over the west limb. This region also produced a non-earthward
directed CME that was first visible in the LASCO C2 imagery at
0125UT. There is currently only one numbered sunspot region (2739)
on the solar disk visible from the Earthside. This region was
located at N07W68 at 2305UT. On UT day 20 April, the solar wind
speed stayed mostly between 330 km/s and 360 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 2 nT and 6 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range +4/-4 nT. The outlook
for the next three UT days (21-23 April) is for the solar wind
to be near its nominal levels. Solar activity is expected to
remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days (21-23 April) with a remote
chance for C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11101011
Cocos Island 1 11101010
Darwin 2 11111100
Townsville 3 21111111
Alice Springs 1 11001010
Gingin 2 11000121
Canberra 1 11000011
Launceston 2 02111011
Hobart 1 01000011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 13311121
Mawson 10 32101144
Davis 55 12310039
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 0011 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Apr 5 Quiet
22 Apr 5 Quiet
23 Apr 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 20 April. Mostly quiet global geomagnetic
conditions may be expected from 21 to 23 April (UT days) with
some possibility of isolated unsettled conditions on 23 April
due to the effect of a negative polarity coronal hole in the
southern hemisphere.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from mostly
near predicted monthly values to significantly enhanced over
the last 24 hours. Some periods of minor MUF depressions were
also observed in some mid-latitude areas. Mostly normal HF conditions
and near predicted monthly MUFs may be expected for the next
three UT days (April 21 to 23).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Apr 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Apr 3 Near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 3 Near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from mostly
near predicted monthly values to significantly enhanced over
the last 24 hours for Australian region. Some periods of minor
MUF depressions were also observed in the Northern Aus region.
Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs may
be expected for the next three UT days (April 21 to 23) in the
Australian/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 20600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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