[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 19 Apr 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 20 09:30:18 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Apr             21 Apr             22 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 19 April, with 
no notable flares. There are currently two numbered sunspot regions 
on the solar disk visible from the Earth, region 2738 and region 
2739. On UT day 19 April, the solar wind speed stayed mostly 
between 310 km/s and 330 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly 
between 1 nT and 7 nT and the north-south component of the IMF 
(Bz) varied in the range +6/-4 nT. The outlook for the next three 
UT days (20-22 April) is for the solar wind to be near its nominal 
levels with some possibility of periods of slight strengthenings 
in the solar wind stream on 20 April due to the effect of a positive 
polarity polar coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to remain 
Very Low for the next 3 UT days (20-22 April) with a remote chance 
for C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11221110
      Cocos Island         3   11121110
      Darwin               4   11221121
      Townsville           5   12221121
      Learmonth            4   11321110
      Alice Springs        3   00221111
      Gingin               3   10211120
      Canberra             2   00211010
      Launceston           3   01212111
      Hobart               2   01211010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   00012000
      Casey                5   23320010
      Mawson               4   11221210
      Davis                4   12222110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   0000 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Apr     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
21 Apr     5    Quiet
22 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 19 April. Mostly quiet global geomagnetic 
conditions may be expected from 20 to 22 April (UT days) with 
some possibility of isolated unsettled conditions on 20 April 
due to the effect of a positive polarity polar coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from mostly 
near predicted monthly values to significantly enhanced over 
the last 24 hours. Some periods of minor MUF depressions were 
also observed in some mid-latitude areas. Mostly normal HF conditions 
and near predicted monthly MUFs may be expected for the next 
three UT days (April 20 to 22).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Apr    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      -7
Apr      -12
May      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Apr     3    Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr     3    Near predicted monthly values
22 Apr     3    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from mostly 
near predicted monthly values to significantly enhanced over 
the last 24 hours for Australian region. Some periods of minor 
MUF depressions were also observed in the Northern Aus region. 
Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs may 
be expected for the next three UT days (April 20 to 22) in the 
Australian/NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 311 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    21500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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