[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 12 Apr 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 13 09:30:21 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 12 Apr. There is currently
one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk, Region
2738 (currently at N06E09), which was the source of several B-class
flares. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the
next 3 UT days with a chance for C-class flares. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available imagery. The solar wind speed
ranged between 400 km/s and 460 km/s over the UT day and is currently
near 430 km/s at the time of this report. The total IMF (Bt)
varied between 3 nT and 7 nT. The north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) ranged between +5 nT and -4 nT without any notable sustained
southward Bz periods. There is a chance of moderate solar wind
speed enhancements over the next 24 hours due to minor coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 21122121
Cocos Island 4 2-111121
Darwin 4 11112121
Townsville 4 21112121
Learmonth 6 12122131
Alice Springs 4 11112121
Culgoora 5 11222121
Gingin 7 21123231
Canberra 5 11222121
Launceston 8 22223132
Hobart 6 21223121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
Macquarie Island 8 11324211
Casey 9 33222231
Mawson 23 54333235
Davis 8 23322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1222 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Apr 7 Quiet
15 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for
the AUS/NZ regions on 12 Apr. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels
were observed in Antarctica with brief Active to Minor Storm
periods. Mostly Quiet global geomagnetic conditions are expected
for AUS/NZ region for 13-15 Apr. Unsettled periods are possible
for 13 Apr due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values across all latitudes
were observed on 12 Apr, with slightly enhanced MUFs for Low
latitudes and periods of disturbed ionospheric support for High
latitudes. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next UT
day, 13 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Apr 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Apr 10 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies ranged from near predicted
monthly values to slightly enhanced ones over the last 24 hours
for Equatorial, Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions, with periods
of disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar
conditions are expected for the next UT day, 13 Apr. Mostly near
predicted monthly MUFs are expected for 14-15 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 70100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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