[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 April 19 issued 2339 UT on 11 Apr 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 12 09:39:09 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 11Apr. There is currently
one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk, Region
2738(N06E21) which was the source of a B1.2 event at 1723UT.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery.
The solar wind speed ranged between 393km/s and 458km/s over
the UT day and is currently 435km/s at the time of this report.
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +2 nT
and -4 nT without any notable sustained southward Bz periods.
Slight chance of solar wind speed enhancements over the next
24 hours due to minor coronal hole effects. Solar activity is
expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 days with only slight
chance for C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22222201
Darwin 5 22222201
Townsville 7 22232211
Learmonth 6 22222300
Alice Springs 5 21222201
Culgoora 5 22222200
Gingin 4 21222200
Canberra 4 12222200
Launceston 6 12232211
Hobart 5 12222201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
Macquarie Island 7 11142300
Casey 12 33432301
Mawson 15 44333311
Davis 59 33942201
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 4431 2331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 9 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr 7 Quiet
14 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for the AUS/NZ
regions 11Apr with Unsettled to Quiet conditions observed for
Antarctic regions with brief Active periods. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions are expected for AUS/NZ region 12Apr and mostly Quiet
conditions expected for 13Apr-14Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values across all latitudes
on 11Apr, with slightly enhanced conditions for Low latitudes
and periods of disturbed ionospheric support for High latitudes.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr 10 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Apr 10 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Apr 10 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies ranged from near monthly predicted
values to slightly enhanced over the last 24 hours for Equatorial,
Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Periods of disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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