[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 September 18 issued 2330 UT on 10 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 11 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day,10 September.
On this day, the solar wind speed decreased from 400 km/s to
345 km/s by 0800UT and then showed a gradual increase to 510
km/s by 2300 UT. The total IMF Bt stayed around 3 nT until around
0800 UT and then showed a gradual increase to 15 nT. The Bz component
of IMF stayed close to normal values by 0800 UT and then went
southwards up to -13 nT. These variation in the solar wind parameters
can be attributed to the effect of a recurrent coronal hole.
Solar wind speed is expected to remain at high levels (mostly
between 500 km/s and 600 km/s) for the next two UT days (11 and
12 September) due to the effect of the coronal hole. For the
next three UT days, 11-13 September, solar activity is expected
to remain at Very Low levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Mostly Quiet
to Active in the Australian regions.
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 11013443
Cocos Island 8 01013342
Darwin 11 11113442
Townsville 12 11113443
Learmonth 14 11013543
Alice Springs 11 01013443
Culgoora 10 00013443
Gingin 14 11014444
Canberra 10 00013443
Launceston 16 11124543
Hobart 12 00014443
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
Macquarie Island 26 00026643
Casey 13 13223433
Mawson 44 21113757
Davis 22 12223536
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1120 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 30 Active to Minor Storm
12 Sep 25 Unsettled to Active, isolated Minor Storm periods
possible
13 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 10 September
and is current for 10-11 Sep. Mostly Quiet to Active geomagnetic
conditions were observed over the Australian region on 10 September.
The global geomagnetic conditions are expected to stay mostly at Active
to Minor storm levels on 11 September, and at Unsettled to Active
levels with the possibility of some Minor Storm periods on 12
September due the effect of a HSS wind stream associated with
a recurrent equatorial positive polarity coronal hole. Geomagnetic
conditions are then expected to gradually decline to Active and
then to Unsettled levels through 13 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
12 Sep Normal-fair Fair Poor-fair
13 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
10 September. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be expected on 11 and 12 September due to
increased geomagnetic activity. HF conditions may start turning
back to normal from 13 Septembr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep -8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
12 Sep -8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
13 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Australian/NZ
regions on UT day 10 September. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions may be expected on 11 and 12
September due to increased geomagnetic activity. HF conditions
in this region may start turning back to normal from 13 Septembr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 26200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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