[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 September 18 issued 2346 UT on 09 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 10 09:46:47 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day,9 Sep, with
no solar flares. There is currently one small magnetically simple
sunspot region 2721(N10W22) on the visible solar disk. For the
next three UT days, 10-12 Sep, solar activity is expected to
remain at Very Low levels. SDO imagery observed a prominence
eruption of the SW limb around 0800UT, however significant data
gap in satellite imagery around this time makes definitive analysis
difficult. The solar wind speed during the last 24 hours was
mostly near the nominal level of 380 Km/s. The total IMF Bt ranged
between 2 nT and 7 nT during the past 24 hours. The Bz component
of IMF varied mostly between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain at its current ambient level until the arrival of CIR
and HSS associated with a recurrent equatorial positive polarity
coronal hole later today, 10 Sep early tomorrow, 11 Sep. The
STEREO A satellite experienced solar winds of near 650 km/s associated
with this coronal hole, similar solar wind strengths are expected
at Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11112122
Cocos Island 4 11111221
Darwin 5 11112222
Townsville 5 11112222
Learmonth 6 11222222
Alice Springs 4 11112122
Culgoora 4 11112122
Gingin 3 10111122
Canberra 4 11111122
Launceston 4 11111122
Hobart 3 11111022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000011
Casey 6 23210122
Mawson 18 42212136
Davis 10 23312024
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1021 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 20 Quiet Active with possible isolated Minor Storm
periods.
11 Sep 30 Active to Minor Storm
12 Sep 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the Australian region
for 09 Sep. Quiet conditions are expected to continue until the
arrival of CIR ahead of HSS associated with a recurrent equatorial
positive polarity coronal hole later today,10 Sep. Quiet to Active
with possible Minor Storm conditions are expected on 10-11 Sep
and Quiet to Active levels of magnetic activity on 12 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
11 Sep Normal-fair Fair-normal Poor-fair
12 Sep Normal-fair Fair-normal Poor-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected today 10 Sep.
Possible depressed conditions on 11-12 Sep for mid to high latitudes
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
12 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
9 Sep. Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values are expected
today, 10 Sep. Mildly depressed MUFs with occasional disturbed
ionospheric support for 11-12 Sep due to increased geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 51900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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