[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 28 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 29 10:30:22 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 28 October.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels
for the next three days (29 to 31 October, UT days). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available latest LASCO imagery up to
28/0936 UT. The solar wind speed during the last 24 hours was
mostly steady, near the nominal level of 330 km/s. During this
time, IMF Bt varied mostly between 1 and 5 nT, and Bz fluctuated
mostly between +3/-4 nT. The two day outlook (29 to 30 October)
is for the solar winds to enhance weakly in response to the anticipated
arrival of the effects from a small low latitude coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11110000
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11110000
Learmonth 2 11120101
Alice Springs 1 11110000
Culgoora 1 11110000
Gingin 2 20110100
Canberra 1 11110000
Launceston 2 22110100
Hobart 2 21110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 7 33320011
Mawson 9 32111134
Davis 4 22221001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1221 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct 5 Quiet
31 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mainly at Quiet levels on UT
day 28 October across the Australian region. Some periods of
Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in the
Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to
stay at Quiet levels today (UT day 29 October) with the possibility
of some unsettled periods due to the possible effect from the
small low latitude coronal hole, soon reaching geoeffective location
the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
28 October, with periods of MUF depressions over the dayside
equatorial regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for today,
UT day 29 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct -27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct -25 Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct -30 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
31 Oct -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian regions were mainly from near
monthly predicted levels to depressed by around 35% on UT day
28 October. Very low levels of ionisation radiation from the
Sun seems to be the main reason for these MUF depressions. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions in the Aus/NZ regions may be expected
for the next three days (UT days 29 to 31 October).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 51500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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