[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 27 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 28 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 27 October.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disc visible from the Earth side. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available latest LASCO imagery up to 27/1124
UT. The solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 408 km/s
at 0000 UT to 429 km/s at 0538 UT and then showed a gradual decrease
to around 340 by 2200 UT on UT day 27 October. During this time,
IMF Bt varied mostly between 1 and 5 nT, Bz fluctuated mostly
between +4/-3 nT and the particle density varied mostly between
2 and 5 ppcc. The effect of a positive polarity coronal hole
in the northern hemisphere may result in periods of slight strengthening
to the solar wind stream from UT day 29 October. Another negative
polarity recurrent coronal hole may add some strength to the
solar wind stream from 30 October. Solar activity is expected
to stay at Very Low levels for the next three days (28 to 30
October, UT days).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11210000
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 2 11210000
Learmonth 2 11210000
Alice Springs 2 21200000
Culgoora 2 11210000
Gingin 1 10210000
Canberra 2 11210000
Launceston 3 11320000
Hobart 2 11210000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 10110000
Casey 11 44420011
Mawson 6 22211131
Davis 5 23321000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2101 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 5 Quiet
29 Oct 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
30 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mainly at Quiet levels on UT
day 27 October across the Australian region. Some periods of
Unsettled and Active levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded
in the Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to stay at Quiet levels on UT days 28 and 29 October with the
possibility of some unsettled periods on 29 October due to the
possible effect of a positive polarity coronal hole in the northern
hemisphere of the solar disk. The effect of another negative
polarity recurrent coronal hole may keep the geomagnetic activity
enhanced up to Active levels on 30 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
30 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly from near monthly predicted levels
to depressed by around 30% on UT day 27 October. Very low levels
of ionisation radiation from the Sun seems to be the main reason
for these MUF depressions. Minor to moderate degradations in
HF conditions and MUF depressions may be expected for the next
three days (UT days 28 to 30 October).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct -33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 Oct -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
30 Oct -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian regions were mainly from near
monthly predicted levels to depressed by around 30% on UT day
27 October. Very low levels of ionisation radiation from the
Sun seems to be the main reason for these MUF depressions. Minor
to moderate degradations in HF conditions and MUF depressions
in the Aus/NZ regions may be expected for the next three days
(UT days 28 to 30 October).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 61900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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